Geneva Watch Auctions Recap: Is It Time to Slow Down?

During the May 2023 auction week in Geneva, there were no fewer than seven auctions being held by five different houses, with Sotheby’s and Christie’s each hosting two. It was wild to watch as spectators, media, brands, auction houses, and especially bidders attempted to digest more than 1,500 lots up for grabs all at once. But how can this sort of “feeding frenzy” be sustainable in the long run?

Of course, if every year is as successful as this one, then it’s good for the market and great for us enthusiasts, but I am always wondering if it’s getting out of hand. And being a rather chubby guy, I know how painful diets can be, but I can’t help but wonder what would happen if the market lost its appetite for these sky-high auction prices? How would it impact the watch industry as a whole?
 

Don’t get me wrong, watch auction weeks are my favorite times of year to travel to Geneva! There are tons of passionate people, infectious enthusiasm, incredible watches with amazing stories, new and old friends celebrating together while they eat club sandwiches and drink Coke Zero.

But the funniest (yet most interesting) part about attending watch auction week in Geneva is the way people at auctions behave like they’re part of a horse racing team before the Kentucky Derby, wearing their hearts on their sleeves as they oscillate between excitement, anxiety, quiet contemplation, and action. Then, once the anxious and competitive vibes reach the point that you feel like you’re surrounded by a bunch of mechanics before an F1 race, the atmosphere in Geneva turns weird.
 

That said, this “weirder” vibe is understandable, considering watch auctions are like the Olympics of our industry. For instance, even if you ignore the sale totals of Ineichen (CHF 3.6 million) and Antiquorum (CHF 10.3 million), the May 2023 watch auctions in Geneva saw Phillips, Sotheby’s, and Christie’s sell over CHF 98 million worth of watches in only a few days.

So, what are the lessons we should take away from these five days? Let’s try to recap it!

I’ve always said that watch auction weeks are about more than the actual auctions. Rather, these weeks are more a way to gather the community in Geneva, giving collectors like me access to some of the most prestigious people in the industry. For example, this year, I spoke with Breitling’s Creative Director Sylvain Berneron before the Christie’s preview. And when I ran into Pierre Biver, Co-Founder of the eponymous new independent watch brand, he was the most welcoming guy and spoke (a lot!) about vintage watches and the market.
 

That is why watch auction weeks are so important for even brands: Removed from the chaotic environments of industry conventions like Watches & Wonders and Geneva Watch Days, brand representatives are free to interact directly with their customers and explain their novelties, have in-depth discussions, or even give impromptu product demonstrations.

Moreover, this “anything goes” spirit presents newer brands trying to establish themselves with a gold opportunity to make connections with influential people in the collector community for a fraction of the cost in both time and money.

After speaking with Pierre Biver for a few hours, I realized something important that led me to evaluate this May’s auctions and their results differently: It’s more important to look at what is sold in high quantities than to look at what is bought. It’s not easy to understand, but once you do, it’s game-changing.

Including a bunch of rare watches from a single brand in a catalog or seeing a specific rare reference offered in more than one catalog allows collectors and enthusiasts to see hard-to-find pieces in the metal. However, it also gives collectors the impression (valid or not) that the appreciation potential for the watch or brand has maxed out. Take Christie’s themed “The Art of F.P.Journe” auction as an example: Yes, it took in CHF 13 million in sales, but at what risk?
 

Themed auctions are both a necessity and a threat to the watch auction market. They are needed in that they make history, set the bar for collecting, and include only the best pieces that could potentially fall under that theme. However, they are also a threat because they tend to cause the market at the heart of that theme to crash, as it did with Rolex Day-Dates, Audemars Piguet Royal Oaks, and Heuer chronographs. Is F.P.Journe next?

Rare watches should have a mystique and be treated as sacred, which doesn’t go well with wide-audience coverage. Moreover, rival auction houses will try to benefit from a themed auction, as we saw from the F.P.Journe pieces in the catalogs of Christie’s competitors. The result is a crossfire of speculators, auction houses, dealers, and collectors all getting what they want at once, leaving no one to support the market going forward.
 

I am not saying that the market for Journe timepieces is or will collapse anytime soon, mainly because the brand is pretty young and its collector base is substantial, but it won’t benefit much from this auction, even if it was fun to watch.

For me, the May 2023 watch auction week in Geneva was the most insightful of the last three years, brining clarity with its results: Watches are evolving and so are tastes; quality lots will bring in solid results but continue to be underrated; independents are here to stay; and the industry seems solid and healthy.

Finally, though it was great to meet new people and experience the bidding in-person, the risk is it getting out of hand. So, while we prepare for a burst, we need to remain open to quirkiness, diversity, and a wider range of watches and players all around the world.